Updates and Analysis: Statistics
First a thank you for Jerry’s contribution to our general fund which along with my own will make the sponsorship of a kit at the WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE convention in London Possible. This kit is free to the test subject if there should be a Wheaton/Wheadon/Wetton willing to test on the spot and they are willing to fill out a family tree chart. I am always looking for extra funds to help extend markers or test new subjects who cannot afford it. You can contribute here via PAYPAL or credit card.
Here’s a video all about Statistics and why they are so important and fascinating. I know you are saying “Statistics are boring!” Not so! I think you’ll enjoy this and there’s even statistics on which counties in England have the highest illegitimacy rate.
I didn’t always like Statistics but I did get an “A” in my college class so I guess that reflects my inner geekness 😉
So we have some interesting New results and I am going to try to pick them apart so that you understand what they say, what they don’t say and why all these numbers and stats matter.
First off is our latest results for Charles A Wheaton with a paper trail back to Exter, Devon in the 1500’s. He did a 12 marker test that we hoped would show his connection to one of our existing groups. Lets look at those 12 markers as compared to the others in Group D1 & D2. Those in red are where they differ.
Now ordinarily a 9/12 match would not be considered a match at all. However the latest results for Paul Ritchie Wheaton are instructive. Paul is a descendant of Robert (group B) thorough Robert’s son Ephraim as is Bonnie’s son Ralph. However from there the diverge with Paul being descended from Ephraim’s son Caleb 3 and Ralph from Ephraim’s son James 3. Okay let’s compare their first 12 markers which are 10/12
Ralph’s markers are the modal (average) for Group B Paul Ritchie’s are the second set.
So here we have a proven relationship that holds at 67 markers and looks like a non-match at 12. So given that Charles A Wheaton’s common ancestor with others in Group C might be in the 1400-1500’s it is still possible this is a Match. The only way to know is to extend the markers. This is often necessary with 12 marker matches or even what looks like a non-match.
There’s more we can learn just looking at two markers in this case the 5th and 6th markers. Here are those with the Frequency percentages for each pair. (yeah stats!)
Charles 11-15 7%
Ralph 12-14 3.7%
Paul 11-14 29.24%
So even though Paul’s values are the most frequent overall they are off modal for Group B. What this suggests is hundred’s of years ago Robert Wheaton’s predecessors had a mutation from 11-14 to 12-14. Paul’s line more recently had a reversion (back mutation) back to the original value.
The point is that stats are useful but not always conclusive. The more data the stronger can be our inferences. Have a look at our results page here which includes not only the FTDNA results but all others. You can see how patterns are emerging particularly in Group B in part because we now have 15 results for this group.
Let’s look at another set of off modal markers in Group B.
These are for Adam WHEATON, John HOWELL and Wesley RAINES. They all show the off modal value of 12 at the 4th marker rather than the modal 11. This “suggests” they may have a more recent common ancestor as this marker is not one that mutates frequently.
And so it goes. We have lots of data but need more. Always hoping for upgrades from 12 to 37 markers or more and more test subjects 😉